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What the East African Commercial Landscape Actually Looks Like Right Now

What the East African Commercial Landscape Actually Looks Like Right Now

Category: Market Entry | Expansion | By Nosakhare Tunde-Oni | NTO Advisory

October 28, 2026

I live in Kigali. I have built commercial operations across Kenya, Tanzania, and the DRC. I have spent real time in these markets: not passing through, but negotiating, building partnerships, navigating regulatory environments, and learning the hard lessons that only come from being on the ground.

 

So when people ask me about East Africa, I give them my honest read. Not a survey of every country in the region, but a ground-level view of the markets I know well, a researcher’s perspective on the ones I have studied closely, and a frank acknowledgement that East Africa is 18 countries with far more nuance than any single article can capture.

Start here. Then go deeper on whichever market you are actually targeting.

Kenya: The Commercial Anchor of the Region

If you are entering East Africa for the first time and you want one market that gives you the clearest view of regional commercial dynamics, Kenya is it. Nairobi is the region’s commercial and financial nerve centre. It is where multinationals base their regional headquarters, where the region’s most sophisticated financial services operate, and where a maturing tech and startup ecosystem has produced companies with genuine continental reach.

 

Kenya’s GDP reached approximately $132 billion in 2025, making it the region’s largest economy. The economy grew 4.7% in 2024, recovering to around 5% in 2025. The Kenyan shilling was the world’s best-performing currency in 2024, appreciating 21% against the dollar. These are signals of underlying commercial depth that is real and durable.

 

But Kenya also demands honest engagement with its complexity. The Finance Bill protests of 2024 shook investor confidence and led to the government’s withdrawal from its IMF programme. Public debt has risen to 67% of GDP. Nairobi’s commercial environment is highly competitive, and your competitors here are often well-funded, well-connected, and fast-moving.

 

Kenya is not the easiest entry point in East Africa. But getting it right here gives you something no other market in the region offers: a platform that reaches across the continent.

Rwanda: The Model With Its Own Logic

I live and operate here, so I can speak to this market more directly than most. Rwanda’s numbers are well known and genuinely impressive. The economy grew 8.9% in 2024 and 9.4% in 2025, among the fastest rates anywhere on the continent. It ranks second in Africa for ease of doing business. Business registration through the Rwanda Development Board can be completed in as few as six hours. The anti-corruption record is real: Rwanda sits 41st on the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, one of Africa’s four least corrupt nations.

 

What people do not always say is this: Rwanda is a small economy. GDP was approximately $14.2 billion in 2024. Consumer purchasing power is limited relative to larger regional markets. And because the government is genuinely effective, it is also deeply present in how business gets done. That is a feature for many operators and a friction for others. You need to understand which category you fall into before you enter.

 

The organisations that succeed here use Rwanda as a platform, not a destination. It is the most governable, most predictable entry point into the East African corridor. Treated as such, it is an extraordinarily valuable base. Treated as a large consumer market, it will disappoint.

Tanzania: Steady, Deep, and Underestimated

Tanzania does not get the attention it deserves. East Africa’s second-largest economy at $78.84 billion in 2024, it has grown consistently at between 5.5% and 6% in recent years, driven by agriculture, mining, and a construction boom tied to major infrastructure investment. The mining sector now accounts for 10.1% of GDP. FDI inflows jumped 28.3% to $1.72 billion in 2024. The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant is now fully commissioned. The Standard Gauge Railway and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline are underway. Tanzania is also co-hosting AFCON 2027, which brings with it a new wave of infrastructure investment and international visibility.

 

I have spent considerable time in Dar es Salaam, and what I would tell any operator considering the market is this: Tanzania rewards patience and relationship above almost everything else. The regulatory environment is more variable than Rwanda’s, particularly in resource sectors where government interest is strong and the rules of engagement can shift. The commercial culture in Dar es Salaam is warm, deliberate, and relationship-driven in ways that are very different from Nairobi’s pace or Kigali’s structure.

 

Do not mistake that measured rhythm for a lack of ambition or commercial depth. Tanzania’s opportunity is substantial. The window for early, well-positioned entry is still open. The operators who take time to understand how this market actually works are the ones who will benefit most from what is coming.

DRC: The Most Complex Story in the Region

No other market in East Africa generates as much conversation, as much hesitation, and as much unrecognised opportunity as the Democratic Republic of Congo. I have operated here, and I want to give you the honest picture on both sides.

 

The DRC produces approximately 69% of the world’s cobalt. It holds vast reserves of copper, coltan, gold, and diamonds. Its nominal GDP reached approximately $70 billion in 2024 and grew 6.5% that year, driven almost entirely by the mining sector. On paper, the resource base is extraordinary. In practice, the environment for commercial engagement is among the most demanding on the continent.

 

Currency volatility is real: the franc lost 8.7% against the dollar in 2024. The security situation in the east continues to constrain commercial activity and investor confidence. Infrastructure gaps are significant. And operating in this environment requires a level of on-the-ground intelligence, relationship capital, and risk management that not every organisation has or should develop.

 

But here is what I know from experience: the DRC is too large and too strategically important to ignore. Organisations building relationships in Kinshasa now, before the mainstream arrives, are positioning themselves for returns that more comfortable markets simply cannot offer. The question is not whether to be interested in the DRC. It is whether you have the specific capabilities and the right partners to engage with it responsibly.

Uganda and Ethiopia: Markets Worth Understanding

I have not operated in Uganda and Ethiopia with the same depth as the four markets above, but I have researched both closely and they are worth noting here.

 

Uganda is at a pivotal moment. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025, FDI reached a record $3.4 billion in 2024 driven by oil sector investment, and commercial oil production is expected to begin in the 2026 to 2027 period with peak output projected at 230,000 barrels per day. Uganda has a young, fast-growing population of over 45 million and a services sector that is gaining momentum. The complexity sits in political risk around the investment environment and infrastructure gaps that remain wide in several sectors. But the organisations positioning themselves ahead of the oil moment are making a sensible long-term bet.

 

Ethiopia is a market of extraordinary scale and genuine turbulence. Over 120 million people, an economy that was growing above 8% for years, and a government with real ambitions for industrial development. In 2024, the government devalued the birr by more than 55%, unlocking $3.4 billion in IMF support and $16.6 billion in World Bank funding. That unlocked vital financing but caused real operational pain for businesses managing import costs and cross-border cash flows. Ethiopia rewards operators with patience, sector-specific expertise, and the risk tolerance to engage with a market that is genuinely in transition.

East Africa is 18 countries. Every one of them has its own commercial logic, its own regulatory environment, and its own timeline. The organisations that succeed across this region never mistake familiarity with one market for understanding of the whole.

And Beyond These Six

East Africa is 18 countries. This article covers six. Burundi, South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, the Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, Zambia, and Malawi all have their own commercial realities, their own investor profiles, and their own risk dynamics. Some are frontier markets at the earliest stage of commercial development. Some, like Mauritius, are sophisticated financial and business hubs that play an outsized role in cross-border investment structuring across the continent.

 

The point is not that you need to understand all 18 before you move. The point is that any single article, including this one, only scratches the surface of what East Africa actually is. The region rewards people who go deep on the specific markets they are targeting, who spend time on the ground rather than reading from a distance, and who seek intelligence from people who have actually operated in the environments they are about to enter.

East Africa is moving. The question is not whether to be engaged with it. It is whether you understand enough of the right things to engage with it well.

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